Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Why our economy is focked

This is obviously an over-simplification because we are screwed for many more reasons, but this explains the easy ones:

• The auto and construction industries helped lead the nation out of past recessions. But the carnage among Detroit's automakers and the surplus of new and foreclosed homes and empty commercial properties make it unlikely these two industries will be engines of growth anytime soon.

• The job market is caught in a vicious circle: Without more jobs, U.S. consumers will have a hard time increasing their spending; but without that spending, businesses might see little reason to start hiring.

• Many small and midsize businesses are still struggling to obtainbank loans, impeding their expansion plans and constraining overall economic growth.

• Higher-income households are spending less because of big losses on their homes, retirement plans and other investments. Lower-income households are cutting back because they can't borrow like they once did.

That the recovery in jobs will be long and drawn out is something on which economists and policy makers can basically agree, even as their proposals for remedies vary widely.

Obama and congressional Democrats are having a hard time agreeing on how to keep the recovery going and help millions of unemployed workers — short of another round of stimulus spending amid rising voter alarm over soaring federal deficits.

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And there you have it. Focked.

There is no more credit to extend, no more taxes to take. Tax revenue is down and it will stay down as long as people are scared, broke and out of work. There is literally no incentive for business to grow and therefore hire. Similarly, there is literally no incentive for individuals to invest and profit.

The "stimulus" stimulated nothing that was sustainable. It was a lot of hand outs, waste and part time infrastructure projects. Every dollar the government hands out is just prolonging this false recovery. You can continue to prolong it by continuing programs like Stimulus, Cash for Clunkers, First Time Home Buyer credits, $250 to seniors, extending unemployment benefits etc etc but the only way to do that is to spend more money that we don't have.

The only reason inflation is not rampant right now is because China and Saudi Arabia continue to buy our debt (i.e. absorb our inflated money supply) They'll continue to do that as long as the have faith in the greeback. Once they lose faith (i.e. scared of Obamunism spending) they will start selling their dollars for euros or gold and those dollars will flood back into the US and that's when the currency becomes debased and inflation will sky rocket.


2 comments:

  1. You mean we can't keep spending trillions of dollars to feign recovery? But Obama went to Harvard, so I don't believe you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Use the graph I just posted to debunk anyone who claims that we spent too much money on Iraq.

    So much for Harvard... Bush went to Yale, lotta good that did us.

    ReplyDelete