Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Common sense from TMQ

From today's Tuesday Morning Quartback on ESPN

Oh No! Gasoline Prices Are Falling! Just last winter, gas at $4 a gallon was said to represent a super-ultra emergency, and ExxonMobil profits were said to be obscene. Now gas is $2 a gallon and this is bad, according to CNBC economics bobbleheads, who last week warned the lower pump price will depress oil-company profits. Just last winter, rising consumer prices were said to represent a super-ultra emergency -- now that consumer prices are falling, that's supposed to be bad too, owing to the possibility of deflation. But innovation and rising labor productivity are supposed to drive down prices. Lower prices are a core goal of capitalist economics!

These points should serve as reminders that the mainstream media always present all economic news as bad. Higher interest rates? Bad for borrowers. Lower interest rates? Might cause inflation. Normally, the media's penchant for spinning all economic news as bad doesn't matter -- but right now it does, as pessimism more than logic seems to be driving the weak economy. Speaking as someone who pulled the election lever for Barack Obama (and whose daughter worked for the Obama campaign round the clock for months), I agree with John McCain's statement, "The fundamentals of the economy are strong." They are. McCain was right! Innovation is high. Labor productivity is high. There are no shortages of any resource or commodity. Pessimism is driving the downturn, and that pessimism is advanced by relentless media negativism.

Even the Wall Street Journal is spinning events in the most pessimistic light. A page one story declared, "Investors in the U.S. stock market have lost more than $9 trillion since its peak a year ago." But there is a distinction between a decline and a loss. The paper value of U.S. equities has declined $9 trillion since the peak in October 2007, but many investors have suffered no loss because they haven't sold. Many people's houses have declined in value in the last two years, but most people haven't lost a dime because they haven't sold -- just as many people's houses rose in value from 2002 to 2006 but most people did not gain, again because they did not sell. Doing nothing can be the smart move in a bear market, and those investors, individual or institutional, who have cleverly done nothing have incurred no losses and are likely to come out ahead in the long run. Yet some insist on claiming $9 trillion has been "lost." Exaggerating the negative only worsens the economic-confidence picture.

6 comments:

  1. Well, sure, "the media" sensationalize things, but that depends on which media outlet you're paying attention to.

    I think the larger problem here is that the public, by and large, is too incurious to educate themselves on what the "fundamentals of the economy" actually are. The result is a public that allows themselves to be convinced that we're heading into ZOMG Grate Depression II.

    No, I don't pretend to be an expert. But I also don't take cable news stations at their word. And I know that perception of the economy is more of a problem here than the actual economy itself.

    I've long attested (Mike, you should remember me bitching about this in AP History study sessions) that representative democracy is a smart man's game, and that there should be basic civics and economics literacy tests required for anyone to be able to vote.

    So, yeah, the media is comprised of a bunch of dimwit talking heads spewing half-truths. But what worries me more are the dimwits that sop it up.

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  2. >> that depends on which media outlet you're paying attention to.

    This is going to be the topic of my next post. I contend there is no neutral news source. Never has, been never will.

    Accepting the fact that you need to form you own opinions is the key.

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  3. I contend there is no neutral news source. Never has, been never will.

    Not exactly a novel idea. Hunter S. Thompson said himself the only objective reporting you find in a newspaper are the box scores.

    By "media outlet" I wasn't just referring to news sources.

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  4. Yeah, we are probably in agreement on this. But I see many people who feel the need to remind people that one news source is biased... yeah no shit. Its so condescending to hear people point that out. The implication that one source is less biased is even worse and totally ignorant.

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  5. The right thing to do is listen critically, never take anything at face value, and pay just as much attention to what's NOT being said. Also, to seek out primary sources as much as possible.

    I think I told you that once, in fact, and you LOL'd at me and told me to take off the tin-foil hat.

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